Four independent data streams, synthesised into a single actionable view of the precious metals market.
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Macro Regime Classification
Continuously classifies the macro environment across eight regimes — from commodity bull runs to hawkish Fed headwinds — so signals are always regime-aware.
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Real Yields & DXY Tracking
Monitors TIPS-derived real yields, FRED macro data, and US Dollar Index in real time. The core drivers of gold and silver are tracked continuously.
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Event-Aware Risk Engine
Tracks CPI, NFP, FOMC, GDP and Powell speeches. Confidence is automatically reduced ahead of high-impact releases — protecting against surprise-driven whipsaws.
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XGBoost + Macro Ensemble
A gradient-boosted ML model combined with macro and volatility regime signals. Walk-forward validated, not curve-fitted. Trained on 15+ years of price data.
Process
How the intelligence is generated
1
Live Data Ingestion
Gold, silver, DXY, VIX, real yields, and macro event data are pulled continuously from IG Markets, Yahoo Finance, and FRED.
2
Regime + Signal Computation
The macro regime engine classifies the environment. The ML model generates a probability estimate. Event proximity adjusts confidence automatically.
3
Plain-English Interpretation
Raw probabilities are converted into human-readable bias labels, trade guidance, and a plain-English market briefing — no interpretation required.
Example Output
What subscribers actually receive
Every briefing is generated from live data. No manual curation, no editorial delay.
Daily Intelligence Briefing — Silver
● LiveQuality: B+
BiasModerate Bullish
Confidence71%
RegimeDisinflationary Slowdown
VolElevated
Event RiskMedium — CPI in 2d
Silver remains supported by weakening DXY and softer real yields. The prevailing disinflationary backdrop limits the inflation bid for metals, and elevated volatility ahead of CPI increases reversal risk.
Trend continuation favorable — consider light long exposure on pullbacks
Above-average volatility — size conservatively
CPI approaching — manage risk carefully around the release
Dovish rate environment continues to support metals on dips
Regime Analysis
How macro regimes shape the signal
Every signal is conditional on the current macro regime. The same momentum pattern means very different things in a hawkish Fed environment vs. a disinflationary slowdown.
Metals Supportive
Disinflationary Slowdown
Growth is slowing and inflation is falling. The Fed is likely to pivot dovish. Real yields fall, supporting gold. This is historically the most favourable macro backdrop for precious metals.
Metals Supportive
Stagflation
Weak growth combined with persistent inflation. Gold historically performs well as a stagflation hedge. Central banks face a policy dilemma — uncertainty drives safe-haven demand.
Metals Headwind
Hawkish Fed / Rising Real Yields
The Fed is tightening, real yields are rising, and the dollar is strengthening. This directly competes with gold's zero-yield advantage and historically weighs on precious metals.
Mixed / Transitional
Risk-Off / Defensive
Risk appetite is deteriorating — equities falling, credit spreads widening. Gold benefits from safe-haven flows but silver (industrial component) may lag. Signal quality varies.
Metals Supportive
Commodity Bull / Dovish Fed
Dollar weakening, commodities in demand, and the Fed is easing. Real yields fall. This is a broad tailwind for the entire metals complex including both gold and silver.
Volatility Warning
Volatility Expansion
Cross-asset volatility is elevated — VIX spiking, intraday ranges widening. The platform automatically reduces signal confidence and flags this state. Position sizing guidance adjusts accordingly.
Transparency
Performance — honestly presented
We show real walk-forward results. The system is calibrated, not optimised to look good.
~53%
5-day directional accuracy
Walk-forward OOS across 26 test folds
0.84
Paper Sharpe ratio
Simulated long/short, no transaction costs
8
Macro regime states tracked
Signals are always regime-conditional
Past performance of the model does not guarantee future results. This platform provides analytical intelligence, not financial advice. All figures are based on back-tested simulation.
Free Access
Start with the free Telegram channel
Get daily metals intelligence briefings delivered directly to your phone — no subscription required.
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MacroMetals Intelligence — Free Channel
Daily briefings, macro regime updates, and event risk alerts sent directly to your Telegram. Free forever. Upgrade anytime for live intraday signals.
Disinflation is softening the inflation bid — real yield direction is the key driver. A medium-impact event is on the horizon — monitor for potential changes.
Access
Choose your intelligence level
Start free — upgrade when you want the full real-time signal stream.
How the platform works, what the signals mean, and what to expect.
Bias labels replace raw confidence percentages. Mild Bullish means the model leans bullish but the edge is modest. Moderate Bullish means a clearer directional lean with reasonable conviction. Strong Bullish means high-confidence alignment across multiple signals. Labels change based on the composite model score — they're designed to be immediately actionable without requiring any translation.
A macro regime is the broader economic and monetary policy environment — for example, "Hawkish Fed" or "Disinflationary Slowdown". Gold and silver respond very differently depending on the regime. A 60% bullish signal in a dovish regime is very different from the same signal in a hawkish one. All signals on this platform are regime-conditional — the system accounts for the macro backdrop before generating any output.
Event risk measures how close the next major macro release is (CPI, NFP, FOMC, GDP). High-impact events like CPI and FOMC can rapidly change the regime narrative. The platform automatically reduces signal confidence when a high-impact event is within 30 minutes, and flags elevated risk in all briefings. This prevents you from acting on a signal that may be immediately invalidated by a data surprise.
Free tier gives you access to daily Telegram briefings, macro regime commentary, and the Intelligence Portal with delayed data (approximately 15–30 minutes). Premium unlocks the real-time intelligence portal, live intraday confidence scores, London and NY open session briefs, regime change alerts, and the full signal history. Premium subscribers also receive intraday updates when market conditions shift materially.
Our walk-forward out-of-sample accuracy on 5-day direction is approximately 53% across 26 test folds — modestly above the 50% random baseline. We publish this number transparently because we believe intellectual honesty builds more trust than inflated claims. The value of the platform is not in delivering certainty — it is in providing a structured, consistent framework for thinking about macro conditions that would otherwise take hours to synthesise manually.
No. MacroMetals Intelligence provides AI-assisted analytical content for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing on this platform constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. All trading involves risk. Past performance of the model is not indicative of future results. You should always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.